July 8, 2017

Stocks That Have Always Gone Down

   When investing, for every fairy tale stock like an Amazon(AMZN) or Nvidia(NVDA), there’s an equally disastrous stock like MoSys(MOSY) or Gevo (GEVO). To avoid getting into stocks like these, it’s important to look at their failures and analyze them to avoid getting into the next potential train wreck of a stock.  Let’s screen for some stocks that have always gone down.

   For this screener we used the equation [always ((change of close over 252 days) < 0 ) within 752 days)] To simplify that equation, it basically means “screen for stocks that have consistently declined every year for 3 years. Only 7 results were shown, so let’s take a look at a couple of these companies’ history and see where it all went wrong for them.…

March 26, 2014

Help! My stock went up 50%?!?!

What should you do if a stock you are holding goes up 50% in one day?  Yesterday night at 5:30 I found myself contemplating this happy question on ARTX (Aerotech, Corporation), which had gone up 50% on news of a large order from the U.S. Department of Defense.  So, I did what I usually do when confronted with such questions — I used Equities Lab to get an answer.  

How to ask the question?  I chose the most naive query possible:  "Find me all stocks that have gone up at least 40% in just one day", and then backtested it, rebalancing weekly on Mondays? 

That doesn't look good!  Maybe I have micro cap stocks (even smaller than ARTX's 80 million) mucking up the result.  Or perhaps penny stocks are causing the problem…  Either way, I realized I was going to have to investigate further — a possiblity at a 200% gain (.5 to 1.5 in 2010) did not make up for the loss of everything thereafter.  And given that my rebalance period was only a week, such losses seemed to come promptly.  So I put in rules to rule out closing price below 2 dollars, and market cap less than 40 million, and got ….